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KoreanAdvanced (先端技術FPD搭載) TV市場、2026年には3800万台規模に成長の予測
冒頭部和訳
DSCCの Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) の最新版によると、Advanced TVの出荷台数は2026年までにCAGR 19％増の3860万台に到達、出荷金額は354億ドルになると予測されている。本レポートは、最先端TVテクノロジー (WOLED、QD-OLED、QDEF、デュアルセルLCD、4Kおよび8K解像度のMiniLED) を含む、世界のプレミアムTV市場を対象としている。テクノロジー/地域/ブランド/解像度/サイズの各項目別に現在と将来のTV出荷台数と出荷金額を調査、これら全てのテクノロジーの成長について予測している。約3週間前に過去実績の最新情報を発表したが、本稿では今週アップデートした予測を取り上げる。
当社では「Advanced TV」を、全てのOLED TV、8K LCD TV、および量子ドット技術搭載のすべてのLCD TVを含む、先端ディスプレイ技術機能を備えたTVと定義している。本レポートの予測データによって、以下のような先端技術LCD TVの機能別分析が可能である。
- QDEF TV：量子ドットエンハンスメントフィルムを使用したTV。Samsung、TCL、その他のメーカーから「QLED」として販売されている。
- MiniLED：MiniLEDバックライト搭載のLCD TV。2019年にTCLが発売、以降も多くのブランドが続く。すべてのMiniLED TVがQDEF搭載と考えられるが、すべてのQDEFがMiniLED搭載というわけではないことに注意が必要である。
- デュアルセル：デュアルセル技術を採用したLCD TV 。2019年にHisenseが導入した。デュアルセルはTVでは段階的に廃止されているようだ。2022年以降、この技術の出荷はゼロになる見通しである。
- QDディスプレイ：Samsungの量子ドットOLED (QD-OLED) 技術の用語だが、当社の予測では、QNEDやEL-QDなど、後を継ぐ可能性のあるテクノロジーにもこの用語を使用している。QDディスプレイのカテゴリーにはQDEF TVは含まれない。
- MicroLED：Samsungが88〜110インチの直視型MicroLED TVを発表、富裕層向けTVとして販売されている。当社のレポートでは、Samsungが販売している146インチや292インチの「The Wall」などの大型MicroLED製品は、主に業務用ディスプレイであることから除外している。
最新のアップデートでは、2021年の販売低迷に基づいて8Kの予測を引き下げた。Samsung Displayが今後、TV用8K QD-OLEDを製造することはなさそうだが、QD-OLEDの予測には2023年以降、49インチTVも含まれるようになった。
下記のグラフは、四半期別、テクノロジー別、画面サイズグループ別のAdvanced TV出荷台数を示している。
2022年にはAdvanced TVの出荷台数が前年比26％増の2470万台、出荷金額が同11％増の294億ドルになると予測される。
Advanced TV Market to Grow to 38M Units by 2026
Advanced TV shipments are expected to grow by a 19% CAGR through 2026 to 38.6M units generating $35.4B in revenue, according to the latest update to DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします), now available to subscribers. This report covers the worldwide premium TV market, including the most advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD-OLED, QDEF, Dual Cell LCD and MiniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. The report looks at current and future TV shipments and revenues by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and forecasts the growth of all these technologies. Several weeks ago, we covered the most recent historical results and this week, we will cover our updated forecast.
In this report, we define an “Advanced TV” (capitalized) as any TV with an advanced display technology feature, including all OLED TVs, 8K LCD TVs and all LCD TVs with quantum dot technology. The forecast in the report allows analysis by feature for Advanced LCD TVs, including:
- QDEF TV: TV using a Quantum Dot Enhancement Film; these TVs are sold as “QLED” by Samsung, TCL and others;
- MiniLED: LCD TVs with a MiniLED backlight, as sold by TCL starting in 2019 with many brands following. Note that we expect that all MiniLED TVs will also have QDEF, but not all QDEF will have MiniLED;
- Dual Cell: LCD TVs employing dual-cell technology, as introduced by Hisense in 2019. Dual Cell appears to be phased out in TV, we forecast zero volume for this technology starting in 2022;
- QD Display: Samsung’s term for its Quantum Dot OLED (QD-OLED) technology, but our forecast also uses this term for potential successor technologies, such as QNED and EL-QD. The QD Display category excludes QDEF TVs;
- MicroLED: Samsung has introduced direct-view MicroLED TVs with sizes from 88”-110”, marketed as TVs for wealthy consumers. Our report excludes larger MicroLED products such as the 146” and 292” “The Wall” products sold by Samsung, as these are primarily business displays.
In our latest update, we have reduced our forecast for 8K based on slower sales in 2021. We no longer expect Samsung Display to make 8K QD-OLED TV panels, but our outlook for QD-OLED now includes 49” TVs starting in 2023.
The first chart here shows our outlook for Advanced TV shipments by quarter and by technology and screen size group.
For 2022, we expect Advanced TV shipments to increase by 26% Y/Y to 24.7M units and expect Advanced TV revenues to increase by 11% to $29.4B.
Quarterly Advanced TV Shipments by Screen Size and Technology, 2020 to 2022
OLED TV units (including QD-OLED) are expected to increase by 28% to 8.9M with revenues increasing 9% Y/Y. Most growth will be in the smallest (<50”) and largest (77”+) sizes. Shipments of OLED TVs <50” are expected to increase by 61% Y/Y with shipments of 42” OLED TVs starting in Q2’22 and reaching more than 200K units for the year. Shipments of 77”+ OLED TVs are expected to increase by 30% Y/Y with shipments of 83” TVs increasing by 123% Y/Y.
Advanced LCD TV units are expected to increase by 24% Y/Y to 15.8M units with revenues increasing 8% Y/Y. Growth will be concentrated in 75” and larger sizes. Shipments of 75” Advanced LCD TVs are expected to increase by 44% Y/Y while shipments of even larger Advanced LCD TVs are expected to increase by 36% Y/Y to more than 800K units.
In our updated long-term forecast, we expect total Advanced TV shipments to grow by a 19% CAGR from 2020 to 2026 to 38.6M units, with OLED TV growing at a faster 24% CAGR to 13.3M and Advanced LCD TV units growing at 17% to 24.4M. We expect MicroLED to increase to more than 30k units in 2026 but this still represents less than 0.1% of the Advanced TV market.
Advanced TV Shipments by Screen Size and Technology, 2018 to 2026
We expect Advanced TV revenues to increase at a 14% CAGR to $35.4B in 2026, driven by increasing volumes, larger screen sizes and new technologies. We forecast that OLED TV revenues, including QD-OLED, will grow by 16% to $15B in 2026 and that Advanced LCD TV revenues will grow by 12% to $19.2B, with the Advanced LCD TV revenue share declining to 54% in 2026. We expect that MicroLED will emerge as the super-premium TV to capture $1.1B or 3% of Advanced TV revenues with only 0.1% of units.
The report divides worldwide shipments into eight geographic regions, and we expect that Western Europe and North America will continue to be the largest regions for Advanced TV. These two regions represented a combined 63% and 62% of Advanced TV units and revenue, respectively, in 2021, and we expect the combined share to remain nearly the same through 2026.
Advanced TV Revenues by Region, 2018 to 2026
Now that Sony and Samsung have launched TVs with QD-OLED panels, we will see how this technology competes with other Advanced TV display technologies. Our forecast for QD-OLED TVs by screen size is shown in the next chart here. We expect these two brands to ship more than 500K QD-OLED TVs in 2022, and shipments to increase to 1.6M in 2026, generally limited by SDC’s capacity. The product portfolio will be limited to 4K resolution panels, but 77” and 49” screen sizes will be added in 2023 as SDC will make these in a Multi-cut Mother Glass (MMG) configuration, 2-up 77” and 2-up 49” on each Gen 8.5 substrate. SDC will also make 34” QD-OLED monitor panels, but those are not covered in the Advanced TV report.
QD-OLED TV Shipments by Screen Size, 2022 to 2026
The category of Advanced TVs represents only a small fraction of the total TV market in unit terms, but it represents where all “the action” is in the technology battle. The champion for the LCD camp is MiniLED, and our forecast for MiniLED TV sets by screen size is shown in the final chart here. MiniLED TV was introduced by TCL in 2019 but sold only in very small volumes, but TCL has broadened its product line and has been followed by most other major brands introducing MiniLED TVs, including Samsung and LG in 2021 and Sony in 2022. We expect an ongoing battle between MiniLED, White OLED and QD-OLED for the premium TV market; because of the Gen 10.5 LCD fabs, we expect that MiniLED will have a substantial cost and price advantage over OLED in the largest screen sizes. MiniLED and big screens will also be the main pathway to 8K TVs; a majority of 8K TVs will employ MiniLED technology starting in 2022.
MiniLED TV Shipments by Screen Size, 2020 to 2026
Overall, we expect that the volume for OLED TVs (including QD-OLED) to continue to exceed that of MiniLED, but that LCD TV (both MiniLED and standard backlit models) will continue to maintain >60% unit share of Advanced TV.
DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) includes technical descriptions of all major advanced TV display technologies, plus quarterly shipment results through Q4’21, sortable by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and includes pivot tables for analysis of units, revenues, ASPs and other metrics. The report includes DSCC’s quarterly forecast out to 2026 across technology, region, resolution and size. Readers interested in subscribing to the DSCC Advanced TV Shipment Report should contact info@displaysupplychain.co.jp.
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