English
Korean2022年のOLED出荷金額は前年比2%増の予測～市場の数少ない好材料、新興アプリケーションの貢献で
冒頭部和訳
DSCCが最近発刊した Quarterly OLED Shipment Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) において、2022年のOLED出荷金額が前年比2%増の420億ドルになるという予測を発表した。アプリケーション別の出荷台数がゲームプラットフォームとモニターの両用途で前年比3桁成長、ノートPC、タブレット、TV、車載、AR/VRの各用途で前年比2桁成長を記録する見通しがこの予測の根拠となっている。
驚くまでもないが、OLED搭載スマートフォンの出荷台数は前年比4％減、出荷金額は前年比1％減になると予測されており、その要因として、マクロ経済の逆風、消費者需要の冷え込み、中国におけるCOVID-19の封鎖措置によって長引くサプライチェーン問題、在庫製品の蓄積に関する懸念が挙げられる。サプライチェーンの情報源によると、主要スマートフォンブランドはいずれも2022年になってオリジナルOLEDの調達を1桁または2桁の割合で減らしているという。これにより2022年の全体成長こそ鈍化しているものの、2022年のOLED業界の成長に関しては明るい点もいくつか見られる。
OLEDs One of the Few Bright Spots in 2022, Up 2% on Emerging Applications
In the recently released Quarterly OLED Shipment Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします), we reveal that 2022 OLED revenues are expected to increase 2% Y/Y to $42B helped by triple-digit Y/Y unit growth for game platforms and monitors and double-digit Y/Y unit growth for notebook PCs, tablets, TVs, automotive and AR/VR applications.
Not surprisingly, we expect OLED smartphones to decline 4% Y/Y in units and 1% Y/Y in revenue as a result of the macroeconomic headwinds, weakened consumer demand, persistent supply chain issues as a result of COVID-19 lockdowns in China and concerns regarding inventory product build up. Based on our supply chain sources, all of the major smartphone brands have reduced their original OLED panel procurements for 2022 by single and double-digit percentages. Although overall 2022 growth is slowing, there are some bright spots of growth for the OLED display industry in 2022:
- OLED monitors: 641% Y/Y unit growth and 279% Y/Y revenue growth;
- OLED notebooks: 64% Y/Y unit growth and 39% Y/Y revenue growth;
- OLED tablets: 15% Y/Y unit growth and 23% Y/Y revenue growth;
- OLED TVs: 10% Y/Y unit growth and 2% Y/Y revenue growth;
- OLED game platforms: 102% Y/Y unit growth and 97% Y/Y revenue growth;
- OLED automotive: 73% Y/Y unit growth and 68% Y/Y revenue growth;
- OLED AR/VR: although this application has <1% revenue share, this application is expected to have over a 2000% Y/Y revenue as result of renewed development and product efforts by Sony, Meta and others.
For OLED monitors, we expect 2022 revenue of $216M from $57M in 2021 as a result of 34” QD-OLED models driving 68% of the revenue for the category. In addition to Dell, Samsung and MSI, other brands are expected to announce products this year.
For OLED notebook PCs, we expect 2022 revenue of $940M in 2022 from $675M in 2021 as more brands enter the category and more models introduced. To date in 2022, there are over 50 model variations of OLED notebook PCs, some with refresh rates up to 240Hz. Our long term forecast for notebook PCs remains robust as a result of new OLED fab capacity coming online that will target notebook PCs.
In 2022, smartphones are expected to remain the dominant application with a 76% unit and revenue share, down from 77% unit share and 78% revenue share in 2021 as a result of gains from other applications. We do expect smartphone unit share to decline to a 73% unit share and 66% revenue share in 2026 as a result of gains from monitors, notebook PCs, tablets, automotive and AR/VR. In 2025, notebook PCs are expected to overtake smartwatches for the #2 application with a 6% revenue share and $3.1B in revenue.
Annual OLED Panel Shipments by Application Forecast
Annual OLED Panel Revenue by Application Forecast
We expect several panel suppliers to grow as a result of their participation in growth areas. We expect SDC’s revenue to grow 7% Y/Y for a 62% revenue share, up from 59% in 2021, as a result of 38% Y/Y gains from notebook PCs, 59% Y/Y gains from tablets, 97% Y/Y gains from game platforms, 64% Y/Y gains from OLED TVs and 2% Y/Y gains from smartphones. SDC is expected to be the only panel supplier to provide OLED displays for the four iPhone 14 models and is expected to account for 62% of the iPhone 14 series volume in 2022. For OLED TVs, SDC is expected to have a 12% revenue share as a result of its 55” and 65” QD-OLED TVs.
We expect LGD’s revenue share to fall slightly from 23% to 22%. LGD is expected to be the panel supplier for the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Pro Max and account for 33% of the iPhone 14 series volume in 2022. LGD is also a key panel supplier for the growth areas of monitor and automotive applications. For monitors, LGD is expected to have a 52% unit share and 42% revenue share and it is expected to account for 90% of OLED TV volumes.
We expect BOE to be the #3 panel supplier with a 7% revenue share in 2022, down from 9% in 2021. The decline in revenue share is the result of a 13% Y/Y unit decline for smartphones and 69% Y/Y decline for smartwatches. For smartphones, BOE is expected to be a panel supplier for the iPhone 14 and have 5% of the volume in 2022.
Annual OLED Panel Revenue by Panel Supplier Forecast
For OLED smartphones by panel shipments, we expect a 4% Y/Y decrease to 612M units. This decrease is the result of 14% Y/Y declines for rigid OLED and slower growth for flexible OLED panels. Foldable OLED smartphone panels are expected to increase 102% Y/Y, followed by flexible OLED smartphone panels up 2% Y/Y. In 2022, rigid OLED smartphone panels were expected to decline 3% Y/Y as a result of Honor and Huawei exiting the category. The revised 14% Y/Y decline is the result of all brands decreasing their allocation as a result of inventory buildup from weakened consumer demand. In 2022, we expect rigid OLED smartphone panels to have a 40% unit share, down from 44% in 2021 and a 18% revenue share, down from 20% in 2021. For flexible OLED smartphone panels, we expect a 57% unit share, up from 54% in 2021 and a 73% revenue share, down from 74% in 2021. For foldable OLED smartphone panels, we expect a 3% unit share, up from 2% in 2021, and a 9% revenue share, up from 5% in 2021.
Annual OLED Smartphone Panel Share by Substrate Forecast
Readers interested in subscribing to the Quarterly OLED Shipment Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) should contact info@displaysupplychain.co.jp.
本記事の出典調査レポート
Quarterly OLED Shipment Report
一部実データ付きサンプルをご返送
ご案内手順
1) まずは「お問い合わせフォーム」経由のご連絡にて、ご紹介資料、国内販売価格、一部実データ付きサンプルをご返信します。2) その後、DSCCアジア代表・田村喜男アナリストによる「本レポートの強み～DSCC独自の分析手法とは」のご説明 (お電話またはWEB面談) の上、お客様のミッションやお悩みをお聞かせください。本レポートを主候補に、課題解決に向けた最適サービスをご提案させていただきます。 3) ご購入後も、掲載内容に関するご質問を国内お客様サポート窓口が承り、質疑応答ミーティングを通じた国内外アナリスト／コンサルタントとの積極的な交流をお手伝いします。
