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KoreanAdvanced TV用FPDのコスト分析～QD-OLED対WOLEDやMiniLEDなど「先端技術パネル」のコスト比較
冒頭部和訳
DSCCが Advanced TV Display Cost Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) の最新版をリリース、OLEDとLCDのコスト分析結果を更新した。今季版には、WOLED全サイズ、MiniLEDバックライト搭載LCDを含む55インチ以上のLCD、さらにSDCの55インチと65インチのQD-OLEDのコスト分析結果の最新情報を収録している。
このコストレポートでは、画面サイズ、リフレッシュレート (60Hz/120Hz) 、バックライト (従来型 /QDEF/MiniLED) 、世代サイズ、製造地 (韓国/中国) の組み合わせ、およびオープンセルモデルを含む、142の異なるLCD製品の詳細なコスト分析結果を提供している。また、27インチから97インチのサイズ、FHDから8Kまでの解像度の、中国と韓国の第8.5世代および第10.5世代ラインで製造された36の異なるOLED製品のコスト分析結果も掲載している。
LGDは中国・広州の第8.5世代WOLEDラインにおける生産改善を継続している。レポートでは、2020年には中国生産のFPDの総コストが韓国生産の同等のFPDのコストよりも高く、2021年には中国生産の利点によって総コストが削減され、2022年には韓国の歩留まりの優位性がなくなっていることが明らかになっている。中国では人件費、間接費、販売費および一般管理費のコストが削減されているが、韓国の償却済みラインと比べて減価償却費が高くなっている。そのため、両地域の総コストは同程度だが、キャッシュコストは中国生産の方が低くなっている。
DSCC Advanced TV Cost Report Allows Comparison of QD-OLED Cost with WOLED and MiniLED
DSCC has released its latest update of our Advanced TV Display Cost Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします), with updates to OLED and LCD cost profiles. This quarter’s edition includes updates to all sizes of WOLED panels and 55”+ LCD sizes including LCD with MiniLED backlights, and cost profiles for 55” and 65” QD-OLED panels from SDC.
The cost report provides detailed cost profiles of 142 distinct LCD products, including combinations of screen size, refresh frequency (60Hz/120Hz), backlight (conventional /QDEF/MiniLED), gen size and manufacturing location (Korea / China) and including open cell models. The report covers 36 distinct OLED products, ranging in size from 27” to 97”, with resolutions from FHD to 8K, and manufactured on Gen 8.5 and Gen 10.5 in China and Korea.
LGD is continuing to improve production at its Gen 8.5 White OLED (WOLED) fab in Guangzhou, China. While our cost report shows that total panel costs from China production in 2020 were higher than the costs for comparable panels made in Korea, by 2021, the advantages for China production allowed lower total costs, and by 2022 Korea’s yield advantage has been eliminated. China has lower costs for personnel, indirect and SG&A, but higher costs for depreciation compared to Korea’s fully depreciated lines. So total costs for the two regions are comparable, but cash costs are lower for production in China.
WOLED TV Panel Cost for Korea and China in 2022
In the last two years, LGD has greatly increased the range of screen sizes for WOLED products, and our report covers additional monitor products to be introduced in 2022, including 27” FHD, 31” QHD and 42” UHD panels and a 45” WQHD panel with an ultra-wide (21.5:9) aspect ratio. This size panel and the ultra-wide aspect ratio allows an efficient 10-cut on a single Gen 8.5 substrate.
The 45” WQHD panel will be targeted at the high-end gaming monitor market, where its deep contrast and fast response time are key features compared to LCD-based displays. The addition of this 45” panel and additional monitor sizes like 27”, 31”, 42” can allow LGD to generate more revenue from its Gen 8.5 capacity.
In this report we include a new cost model for Inkjet Printed (IJP) OLED. We expect that CSOT will be the first panel maker to introduce IJP OLED with capacity starting in 2024. CSOT has a joint development agreement with JOLED for IJP technology and has demonstrated IJP OLED models at various exhibitions. A comparison of the costs for IJP OLED with WOLED is shown in the next charts here. Both types will be made on Gen 8.5 lines in China.
Panel Cost on Gen 8.5 in China for 55” UHD WOLED (L) and IJP (R)
We assume in our cost model that the IJP panel has an RGB pixel structure, compared to RGBW for WOLED. This reduces the costs for module components like driver ICs. We also assume that IJP panels do not require a color filter, giving an additional cost savings. Most early prototypes of IJP OLED have included color filters. The charts here demonstrate that even with these advantages, the cost for IJP is comparable to WOLED, and when WOLED lines are fully depreciated the total cost for WOLED can be even lower than IJP.
Starting in 2022, we include QD-OLED panel cost in this report. We estimate that in its year of introduction, QD-OLED panel costs are dramatically higher than any other flat panels of the same screen size due to relatively low yields. Although SDC has reportedly improved yields for QD-OLED during the course of the year, our yield estimates for 2022 are about 70% for 55” and 65” TV panels.
The costs for QD-OLED panels will come down sharply as yield improves. We estimate that QD-OLED panel costs will decrease by 20%-25% Y/Y in 2023, primarily based on the impact of higher yields. Higher yields allow for fixed costs, which include depreciation and most personnel and indirect costs to be amortized over higher volumes.
Subscribers to the report can see the detailed cost models for 55” and 65” QD-OLED panels, including quarterly cost estimates from 2022 through 2026 with breakdown by cost components and the corresponding estimates of yield and fab utilization.
The latest report updates the cost models for LCD panels with MiniLED backlights. The report allows for comparison across the wide range of performance (and cost) within LCD, from conventional LCD with 60Hz refresh to 120Hz to QDEF panels and finally MiniLED + QDEF. Combined with the OLED cost models, the report allows a complete comparison of the cost of all large-screen TV types.
The next chart here shows the cost profiles for 75”/77” panels across the range of technologies on the market in 2022. LCD products are made on Gen 10.5 lines in China while WOLED products are made with MMG on Gen 8.5 lines in China. Conventional LCD with UHD resolution and 60Hz refresh rates have the lowest cost, more than 50% lower than WOLED UHD made in China. LCD step-up products with 120Hz and QDEF add only a modest cost, roughly 5% and 10% respectively. MiniLED UHD and 8K QD LCD are both substantial cost adders, increasing total costs by roughly 50% each individually, and when combined the 75” 8K MiniLED LCD TV panels have a total cost nearly as high as 77” WOLED UHD panels made in China with MMG.
75”/77” Panel Total Cost in 2022 for LCD and OLED Panels
As noted above, subscribers to the Advanced TV Display Cost Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) receive cost profiles of all major product configurations competing in the premium TV space in both LCD and OLED. The report includes Excel files with the detailed cost models in tables and in graphical form, and a PDF, which outlines the main findings of this quarter’s update. The PDF includes comparisons of competing technologies (such as WOLED vs. Inkjet Printing, or LCD vs. QDEF) and differing manufacturing platforms (Korea vs. China, Gen 8.5 vs. Gen 10.5). Readers interested in subscribing to the Advanced TV Cost Report should contact info@displaysupplychain.co.jp.
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Advanced TV Display Cost Report
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