English
Korean2022年のスマホ用OLED出荷金額は前年比5%減
冒頭部和訳
DSCCは先日発刊した Advanced Smartphone Display Shipment and Technology Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) において、スマートフォン用OLED出荷枚数が前年比13%減、出荷金額が前年比5%減になる見通しを明らかにし、さらに詳細な情報とインサイトを提供している。スマートフォン用OLED出荷金額は2021年の330億ドルから310億ドルに減少すると予測されている。継続するマクロ経済環境の課題、長引くサプライチェーンの問題、消費者需要の弱体化が重なった結果、大手スマートフォンブランドによる2022年のスマートフォン用OLED調達は2桁の割合で削減し続けている。
2022年のスマートフォン用OLED出荷枚数は、前年比13%減の5億5400万枚になると予測される。スマートフォン用フレキシブルOLEDは前年比6%増となり、その台数シェアは2021年の54%から65%へと上昇する見通しだ。スマートフォン用リジッドOLEDの出荷枚数は前年比38%減で、枚数シェアは2021年の45%から32%へと低下すると見られている。中国系FPDサプライヤー数社がスマートフォン用フレキシブルOLEDの価格をスマートフォン用リジッドOLEDに非常に近い水準に設定した結果、スマートフォン用リジッドOLEDは急速な減少を続けており、2021年と比較して需要が大幅に縮小したブランドも見られる。2021年には一部の中国系FPDサプライヤーでは、スマートフォン用フレキシブルOLEDのASPがリジッドOLEDのASPの2倍以上だったが、状況はもはや変わっている。このほか、スマートフォン用フォルダブルOLEDの出荷枚数は前年比77%増で、枚数シェアは2021年の2%から 3%に上昇すると予測されている。
OLED Smartphone Panel Revenues to Decline 5% Y/Y in 2022
In the recently released Advanced Smartphone Display Shipment and Technology Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします), we reveal additional granularity and insights for the expected 13% Y/Y unit decline and 5% Y/Y panel revenue decline for OLED smartphones. OLED smartphone panel revenue is expected to decline to $31B from $33B in 2021. As a result of the continued macroeconomic environment, persistent supply chain issues and weakened consumer demand, major smartphone brands continue to reduce their OLED smartphone panel procurement for 2022 by double-digit percentages.
For 2022, we expect OLED smartphone panel shipments to decrease 13% Y/Y to 554M panels. Flexible OLED smartphone panels are expected to increase 6% Y/Y and account for a 65% unit share, up from 54% in 2021. Rigid OLED smartphone panels are expected to decline 38% Y/Y and account for a 32% unit share, down from 45% in 2021. Rigid OLED smartphone panels continue to decline rapidly as a result of several Chinese panel suppliers pricing flexible OLED smartphone panels very close to rigid OLED smartphone panels and several brands are significantly reducing their demand versus 2021. In 2021, for some Chinese panel suppliers, flexible OLED smartphone panel ASPs were more than double the ASPs of rigid OLEDs. That is no longer the case. Separately, foldable OLED smartphone panels are expected to increase 77% Y/Y for a 3% unit share, up from 2% in 2021.
For 2023, we expect OLED smartphone panels to increase 9% Y/Y and flexible OLED smartphone panels to increase by 14% Y/Y for a 68% unit share, followed by foldable/rollable OLED smartphone panels increasing by 34% Y/Y to a 4% unit share and rigid OLED smartphone panels declining by 3% Y/Y for a 28% unit share. In 2023, for flexible OLED smartphone panels, we expect all brands to increase panel procurement by single- and double-digit percentages as a result of flexible OLED panel ASPs declining 17% Y/Y and more flexible OLED capacity coming online. We expect rigid OLED smartphone panels to continue to decline by 3% Y/Y as ASPs for flexible OLED smartphone panels continue to decline, several brands completely exit the rigid OLED smartphone category and excess rigid OLED capacity is used for IT applications.
For 2022, on a smartphone panel revenue basis, we expect rigid OLED smartphone panel revenue to decrease 39% Y/Y for a 13% share, down from 20% in 2021. Flexible AMOLED smartphone panel revenue is expected to remain flat and increase to a 79% revenue share in a smaller market. Foldable AMOLED smartphone panel revenue is expected to increase 55% Y/Y with an 8% revenue share, up from 5% in 2021.
For 2023, we expect smartphone panel revenues to decline 4% Y/Y, with flexible smartphone panel revenue declining 4% Y/Y on 9% Y/Y unit growth, followed by a 20% Y/Y increase for foldable/rollable smartphone panel revenue on 34% Y/Y unit growth. For rigid OLED smartphone panel revenue, we expect a decline of 14% Y/Y on 3% Y/Y unit declines.
Annual OLED Smartphone Panels by Substrate
In the case of 2022 panel revenue share by panel supplier, we expect SDC to remain the dominant panel supplier with a 67% revenue share, followed by LGD with 10%, BOE with 8% and Visionox with 3%. In 2023, based on expected panel shipment volumes, we expect SDC to have a 57% panel revenue share, followed by BOE with 12%, LGD with 11% and Visionox and China Star with 3%. The share increase for BOE is a result of the expected increased panel shipments from Apple, Honor, Oppo, Samsung and Vivo. For Apple, BOE currently supplies flexible OLED panels for the iPhone 12, 13 and 14. The share increase for LGD is a result of expected increases for panel shipments from Apple. For Apple, LGD supplies flexible OLED panels for the iPhone 11 Pro Max, iPhone 12, iPhone 13, iPhone 13 Mini, iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Pro Max.
Annual OLED Smartphone Panel Revenue by Panel Supplier
In the case of 2022 OLED brand share, we expect Apple to have a 39% unit share and a 54% smartphone device revenue share, up from 29% and 41%, respectively in 2021. We expect Samsung to have a 21% unit share and a 21% smartphone device revenue share, down from 22% and 22%, respectively in 2021.
Annual OLED Smartphone Panel Shipment Share by Brand
For Q3’22, we expect the top five models to be the Apple iPhone 14 Pro Max, iPhone 14 Pro, iPhone 13, iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Plus. These five models are expected to account for a 38% unit share and 52% smartphone device revenue share. For 2022, based on current panel shipments, we expect the Apple iPhone 14 series to account for a 19% unit share of all AMOLED smartphone panels.
Q2’22 and Q3’22 Top 5 Rigid and Flexible OLED Smartphone Panel Procurement by Brand
Readers interested in subscribing to the Advanced Smartphone Display Shipment and Technology Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) should contact info@displaysupplychain.co.jp. This report includes all DSCC’s smartphone data from covering all OLED smartphone and panel shipments by brand, model, all display and major non-display parameters, panel and device revenues and forecasts by quarter and by year through 2026. In addition, it provides insights into technology and innovation trends in OLED display technology which is applicable to smartphones. There are over 1,000 AMOLED smartphone configurations in our database including variations by substrate, TFT backplane, panel supplier, refresh rate, chipset supplier, 5G networks and much more.
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Advanced Smartphone Display Shipment and Technology Report
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