English
Korean2023年のOLED出荷額は前年比2%増～IT用途が引き続き成長
冒頭部和訳
DSCCが先日発刊した最新版 Quarterly OLED Shipment Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) によると、OLED出荷額は2022年に前年比2%減となる一方、2023年には同2%増の420億ドルに達すると予測されている。モニター、AR/VR、車載の各用途で3桁成長が、またノートPC、TV、タブレットの各用途で2桁成長が期待されていることが、2023年の回復の要因に挙げられている。
マクロ経済の混乱、消費者需要と商業需要の弱体化、高い在庫水準を背景とした2022年の惨状を経て、2023年には、ITカテゴリーへの参入ブランド増加、積極的な価格設定、さらにCOVID-19の制限緩和によって期待される中国の生産拠点の安定化などにより、多少ながらも回復が見込まれている。2023年OLED市場では、各用途の出荷数と出荷額が以下の通り前年より増加すると予測される。
OLED Panel Revenues are Expected to Increase 2% Y/Y in 2023 - Continued Growth Expected for IT Applications
In the recently released Quarterly OLED Shipment Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします), DSCC reveals that 2023 OLED panel revenues are expected to increase 2% Y/Y to $42B after declining 2% Y/Y in 2022. This recovery is the result of expected triple digit growth for monitors, AR/VR and automotive applications and double-digit growth for notebook PCs, TVs and tablets.
After a dismal 2022 as a result of macroeconomic turbulence, weakened consumer and commercial demand and high inventories, 2023 is expected to see some recovery due to more brands entering the IT categories, aggressive price points and what hopefully will remain a stable production base in China as COVID-19 restrictions are loosened. In 2023, by application, we expect Y/Y unit and panel revenue increases for the following:
- OLED notebook PCs: 50% Y/Y in units and 48% in panel revenues;
- OLED monitors: 171% Y/Y in units and 152% in revenues;
- OLED TVs: 12% Y/Y in units and 5% in revenues;
- OLED tablets: 34% Y/Y in units and 20% in revenues;
- OLED smartwatches: 6% Y/Y in units and 3% in revenues;
- OLED automotive: 105% Y/Y in units and 86% in revenues;
- OLED AR/VR: although this application has <1% revenue share, this application is expected to have 247% Y/Y revenue growth as result of development and product efforts by Sony, Meta and others.
OLED smartphones panel shipments are expected to recover and grow 7% Y/Y after an 11% Y/Y decline in 2022 driven by new foldable and flexible smartphones and more brands entering the premium categories.
For OLED monitors, LG has recently announced a 27” WOLED monitor priced at $999. Asus along with other brands are also expected to announce new 27” models at CES 2023. In addition, we expect to see new QD-OLED display sizes from Samsung and others in the 40”+ category. As such, we expect the WOLED and QD-OLED monitor categories to grow by triple digits and the overall OLED monitor category to grow as well.
For OLED notebook PCs, we expect 2022 panel revenue of $898M in 2023, up from $606M in 2022 on gains of 9M units from 6M units in 2022. Our long term forecast for OLED notebook PCs remains robust as a result of new G8.7 OLED fab capacity coming online in 2024 - 2025 that will target IT applications. In addition to many brands participating in the rigid OLED notebook PC category, we expect to see more brands participating in the foldable OLED notebook PC category in 2023.
In 2023, smartphones are expected to remain the dominant application with a 74% unit and 75% revenue share, down from 76% unit share and 78% revenue share in 2022 as a result of gains from other applications. Smartwatches are expected to remain the #2 application in 2023 with a 17% unit share and 7% revenue share. In 2026, we expect notebook PCs to overtake smartwatches for the #2 application with an 8% revenue share and more than $4B in panel revenue.
Annual OLED Panel Revenue by Application
In 2023 by panel supplier:
We expect SDC to have the majority panel revenue share as a result of triple digit gains for monitors, AR/VR and automotive applications. SDC is expected to be the only panel supplier providing all four iPhone 15 panels in 2023, like the iPhone 14 mix. We expect SDC to have a 54% share of the iPhone 15 series panel shipments in 2023.
We expect LGD’s revenue share to fall slightly from 20% to 19%. LGD is a panel supplier for the iPhone 14 and iPhone 14 Pro Max. We expect LGD to account for 28% of the iPhone 15 series panel shipments in 2023, up from 18% for the iPhone 14 series as a result of LGD supplying panels for the iPhone 15 Pro. LGD is also a key panel supplier for the growth areas of monitors and automotive applications. For monitors, LGD is expected to have a 37% unit share, up from 33% in 2022 and 28% revenue share, up from 27% in 2022. For OLED TVs, LGD is expected to have an 88% unit share and 84% revenue share.
We expect BOE to be the #3 panel supplier with a 9% revenue share in 2023, up from 8% in 2022. The increase in panel revenue share is the result of a 42% Y/Y unit increase for smartphones. For smartphones, BOE is expected to account for 18% of the iPhone 15 series panel shipments, up from 8% for the iPhone 14 series as a result of becoming a supplier for the iPhone 15 Plus.
Annual OLED Panel Revenue by Panel Supplier
In 2023, for OLED smartphones by panel shipments, we expect a 7% Y/Y increase to 606M units. This increase is the result of an 11% Y/Y increase for flexible OLED panels and 45% Y/Y increase for foldable OLED smartphone panels. In 2023, we expect flexible OLED smartphone panels to have a 68% unit share, up from 66% in 2022, followed by rigid OLED with 28%, down from 32% in 2022 and foldable OLED smartphone panels with 4%, up from 3% in 2022.
Annual OLED Smartphone Panel Share by Substrate Forecast
On an area basis, OLED TVs are expected to remain with a 51% area share in 2023 as a result of gains from 55” and 65” QD-OLED TVs and gains from 55”, 65”, 77”, 88” and 97” WOLED TVs. We expect notebook PCs to grow share from a 3% area share in 2022 to 4% in 2023 and increase to a 10% area share in 2027 as new G8.7 IT OLED fabs come online. Excluding OLED TVs, OLED smartphones have an 85% area share, down from 90% in 2022 on gains from notebook PCs, monitors, tablets, game platforms and automotive.
Annual OLED Area by Application
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