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KoreaniPhone 14 Pro/Pro Max出荷分析～Foxconnの混乱でシェア低下も、1月には力強く回復の見通し
冒頭部和訳
2022年も終わろうとしている今、10月から11月にかけて中国鄭州市にあるFoxconnの工場で発生した混乱を踏まえ、iPhone 14 Proモデルに対する影響をここで評価したいと思う。混乱の発生時期に、AppleはiPhone 14 Proモデルが一時的に影響を受けることを通知していた。
2022年の動向についてサプライチェーン情報筋に聞いた最新調査から、iPhone 14 Proモデル用のパネル出荷枚数は3%、iPhone 14 Pro Max用は2%、それぞれ減少したことが明らかになっている。パネル出荷に対する影響は12月までに、iPhone 14 Pro用とiPhone 14 Pro Max用で合計150万枚程度となる。この推定値には12月のiPhone 14 Plus用のパネル出荷枚数は反映されていない。Foxconnの同工場は主にProモデルを生産しており、iPhone 14 Plus用の減少は、Foxconn工場の混乱の影響に対し、需要の問題と考えられる。
iPhone 14用パネル出荷枚数は12月までに1億100万枚に達すると予測されており、2021年のiPhone 13用パネル出荷枚数と比較すると前年比10%増となる。iPhone 14 Proモデルに対する影響を考慮した結果、iPhone 14用パネルの出荷枚数シェアは24%、前回予測では23%だった。モデル別では、iPhone 14 Plus用がシェア13%、iPhone 14 Pro用は前回予測の27%に対し26%、iPhone 14 Pro Max用は前回予測の37%に対し36%となっている。ちなみに2021年のシェアは、iPhone 13用が41%、iPhone 13 Pro Max用が28%、iPhone 13 Pro用が23%だった。
Apple iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone Pro Max Lose Share as a Result of Foxconn Turbulence - Strong Recovery Expected in January
As we approach the end of 2022, I wanted to evaluate the impact to the iPhone 14 Pro models in light of the turbulence that occurred at the Foxconn facility in Zhengzhou, China in October – November. Apple had issued a warning during that time that the iPhone 14 Pro models would be temporarily impacted.
In the latest survey of our supply chain sources for 2022, we found that the panel shipments for the iPhone 14 Pro model were reduced by 3%, while the iPhone 14 Pro Max were reduced by 2%. This translates to a total impact of about 1.5M panels for the iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max through December 2022. The estimates do not show any panel shipments for the iPhone 14 Plus in December. Since the Foxconn facility primarily produced Pro models, the reduction for the iPhone 14 Plus is likely a demand issue versus the impact of the Foxconn facility turbulence.
iPhone 14 panel shipments are expected to reach 101M panels through December, which represents a 10% Y/Y increase when compared to the iPhone 13 panel shipments in 2021. As a result of the impact to the iPhone 14 Pro models, the iPhone 14 panel shipments had a 24% share, up from 23% in prior estimates, iPhone 14 Plus with 13%, iPhone 14 Pro with 26% versus 27% in prior estimates and the iPhone 14 Pro Max with 36% versus 37% in prior estimates. In 2021, the iPhone 13 had a 41% share, followed by the iPhone 13 Pro Max with 28% and the iPhone 13 Pro with 23%.
2021 iPhone 13 vs 2022 iPhone 14 Panel Shipments
iPhone 14 Series Shipments Projected Through December 2022
2022 iPhone 14 Series Panel Shipment Share
2021 iPhone 13 Series Panel Shipment Share
Comparing panel supplier share between the 2022 iPhone 14 models and 2021 iPhone 13 models, SDC is expected to have a 74% share, down from 76%, followed by LGD with 16%, down from 21% and BOE with 9%, up from 3%.
What is more telling is what is projected to happen in January 2023. The iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max have the lion’s share of panel shipments in January. 15M panel shipments are expected to ship with the Pro models accounting for 80% of those shipment with the iPhone 14 Pro Max accounting for 51% of that total. In December, China relaxed their COVID-19 policies and Foxconn stabilized the situation in the Zhengzhou China facility. The increased focus on the Pro models is part recovery to what happened in October and demand issues. From all accounts, consumers are willing to pay the additional $200 for the 6.7” iPhone 14 Pro versus the 6.7” iPhone 14 Plus.
The growth and share gains for the iPhone 14 series is even greater when January is included. When January is included and comparing the iPhone 13 panel shipments to iPhone 14 panel shipments, panel shipments are expected to increase 14% Y/Y to 117M panels.
2021 iPhone 13 Series vs. 2022 iPhone 14 Series Panel Shipments + January
iPhone 14 Series Shipments Projected Through January 2023
When factoring in the month of January for panel shipments, the iPhone 14 Pro is expected to have a 27% share, up from 23% for the iPhone 13 Pro and the iPhone 14 Pro Max is expected to have a 38% share, up from 29% for the iPhone 13 Pro Max. The iPhone 14 is expected to have a 24% share, down from 40% for the iPhone 13.
Comparing panel supplier share between the iPhone 14 models and iPhone 13 models when the month of January is added, SDC is expected to have a 72% share, down from 76%, followed by LGD with 18%, down from 21% and BOE with 10%, up from 4%.
2022 iPhone 14 Series Panel Shipment Share + January 2023
2021 iPhone 13 Series Panel Shipment Share + January 2022
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Advanced Smartphone Display Shipment and Technology Report
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