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KoreanAdvanced (先端技術FPD搭載) TV市場～技術別/サイズ別/地域別分析
途中部和訳
2022年のAdvanced TVの出荷数は前年比7%増の2130万台、出荷額は前年比1%増の275億ドルに達したと見られる。2023年のAdvanced TV市場は上半期に減速、その後は回復し再び成長に転じると予測される。
2023年上半期にはOLED TV (QD-OLEDを含む) の出荷数が前年比11%増の320万台に増え、出荷額は前年比3%増になる見通しだ。成長率が最も高くなりそうなのは50インチ未満の小型サイズと77インチ以上の大型サイズである。50インチ未満のOLED TVの出荷数は前年比17%増、77インチ以上は前年比28%増になると予測される。
市場の減速の影響が大きいのはAdvanced LCD TVで、出荷数は前年比8%減の620万台、出荷額は前年比9%減になる見通しだ。75インチ以上の大型サイズは成長が続くと見られるが、成長率は出荷数ベースで前年比6%増に減速、出荷額ベースでは前年比1%減が予測されている。
最新の長期予測では、Advanced TVの出荷総数は2020年から2027年にかけて年平均成長率14%で344万台に増加する見通しだ。伸びが大きいのはOLED TVで年平均成長率は19%になり125万台に到達、LCD TVの成長率は12%で218万台になると予測されている。MicroLEDは2026年には6万台まで増える見通しだが、Advanced TV市場におけるシェアは依然として0.2%未満である。
Advanced TV Market to Grow to $34B by 2027
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Advanced TV shipments are expected to grow by a 14% CAGR through 2027 to 34.4M units generating $34.4B in revenue, according to the latest update to DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします), now available to subscribers. This report covers the worldwide premium TV market, including the most advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD-OLED, QDEF, MicroLED and MiniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. The report looks at current and future TV shipments and revenues by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and forecasts the growth of all these technologies. One month ago, we covered the most recent historical results and this week we will cover our updated forecast.
In this report, we define an “Advanced TV” (capitalized) as any TV with an advanced display technology feature, including all OLED TVs, 8K LCD TVs and all LCD TVs with quantum dot technology. The forecast in the report allows analysis by feature for Advanced LCD TVs, including:
- QD LCD TV: TV using a Quantum Dot Enhancement Film (QDEF); these TVs are sold as “QLED” by Samsung, TCL and others;
- MiniLED: LCD TVs with a MiniLED backlight, as sold by TCL starting in 2019 with many brands following. Note that we expect that all MiniLED TVs will also have QDEF, but not all QDEF will have MiniLED;
- QD-OLED: Samsung Display’s large-screen OLED technology. Our forecast also uses this term for potential successor technologies, such as QNED and EL-QD.;
- MicroLED: Samsung has introduced direct-view MicroLED TVs with sizes from 88”-110”, marketed as TVs for wealthy consumers. Our report excludes larger MicroLED products such as the 146” and 292” “The Wall” products sold by Samsung, as these are primarily business displays.
Two Advanced TV technologies appear in our historical data but are not included in our forecasts, because both technologies appear to be discontinued.
- Dual Cell: LCD TVs employing dual-cell technology, as introduced by Hisense in 2019. Dual Cell appears to be phased out in TV, we forecast zero volume for this technology starting in 2022;
- Rollable OLED TV, introduced by LG in 2021, has been discontinued in 2022.
In our latest update, our forecast for OLED TV has been reduced in 2022-2026 due to disappointing sales in 2022 and intense competition with lower-priced LCD TVs.
The first chart here shows our outlook for Advanced TV shipments by quarter and by technology and screen size group.
For 2022, we estimate that Advanced TV shipments have increased by 7% Y/Y to 21.3M units and estimate Advanced TV revenues have increased by 1% to $27.5B. We expect a slowdown in the Advanced TV market in the first half of 2023 before it recovers and resumes growth.
Quarterly Advanced TV Shipments by Screen Size and Technology
In the first half of 2023, OLED TV units (including QD-OLED) are expected to increase by 11% to 3.2M with revenues increasing 3% Y/Y. The highest growth will be in the smallest (<50”) and largest (77”+) sizes. Shipments of OLED TVs <50” are expected to increase by 17% Y/Y and shipments of 77”+ OLED TVs are expected to increase by 28% Y/Y.
The market slowdown will have a greater impact on Advanced LCD TV shipments which are expected to decrease by 8% Y/Y to 6.2M units with revenues decreasing 9% Y/Y. Growth will continue for 75” and larger sizes but will slow to 6% Y/Y with revenues down 1% Y/Y.
In our updated long-term forecast, we expect total Advanced TV shipments to grow by a 14% CAGR from 2020 to 2027 to 34.4M units, with OLED TV growing at a faster 19% CAGR to 12.5M and Advanced LCD TV units growing at 12% to 21.8M. We expect MicroLED to increase to 60k units in 2026 but this still represents less than 0.2% of the Advanced TV market.
Advanced TV Shipments by Screen Size and Technology
Advanced TV revenues jumped in 2021 with pandemic-fed demand and higher prices. Price declines in 2022-2027 will constrain revenue growth, but for the period 2020-2027 we expect Advanced TV revenues to increase at a 12% CAGR to $35.5B in 2026, driven by increasing volumes, larger screen sizes and new technologies. We forecast that OLED TV revenues, including QD-OLED, will grow by 13% to $14.4B in 2027 and that Advanced LCD TV revenues will grow by 9% to $17.8B, with the Advanced LCD TV revenue share declining to 52% in 2026. We expect that MicroLED will emerge as the super-premium TV to capture $2.3B or 6% of Advanced TV revenues with only 0.2% of units.
The report divides worldwide shipments into eight geographic regions, and we expect that Western Europe and North America will continue to be the largest regions for Advanced TV. These two regions represented a combined 61% and 60% of Advanced TV units and revenue, respectively, in 2022, and we expect the combined share to remain nearly the same through 2027.
Advanced TV Revenues by Region
With the first year since Sony and Samsung launched TVs with QD-OLED panels, we are seeing how this technology competes with other Advanced TV display technologies. Our forecast for QD-OLED TVs by screen size is shown in the next chart here. We estimate that these two brands shipped 455K QD-OLED TVs in 2022, and we expect shipments to increase to 1.4M in 2027, generally limited by SDC’s capacity. The product portfolio will be limited to 4K resolution panels, but 77” TVs and 49” monitors will be added in 2023 as SDC will make these in a Multi-cut Mother Glass (MMG) configuration, 2-up 77” and 2-up 49” on each Gen 8.5 substrate. SDC will also make 34” QD-OLED monitor panels, but monitors are not covered in the Advanced TV report.
QD-OLED TV Shipments by Screen Size
The category of Advanced TVs represents only a small fraction of the total TV market in unit terms, but it represents where all “the action” is in the technology battle. The champion for the LCD camp is MiniLED, and our forecast for MiniLED TV sets by screen size is shown in the final chart here. MiniLED TV was introduced by TCL in 2019 but sold only in very small volumes in 2020, but TCL has been followed by most other major brands introducing MiniLED TVs, including Samsung and LG in 2021 and Sony and others in 2022. We expect an ongoing battle between MiniLED, White OLED and QD-OLED for the premium TV market; because of the Gen 10.5 LCD fabs, we expect that MiniLED will have a substantial cost and price advantage over OLED in the largest screen sizes. MiniLED and big screens will also be the main pathway to 8K TVs; a majority of 8K TVs will employ MiniLED technology starting in 2022.
MiniLED TV Shipments by Screen Size
Overall, we expect that the volume for OLED TVs (including QD-OLED) to continue to exceed that of MiniLED, but that LCD TV (both MiniLED and standard backlit models) will continue to maintain >60% unit share of Advanced TV.
DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) includes technical descriptions of all major advanced TV display technologies, plus quarterly shipment history through Q3’22, sortable by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and includes pivot tables for analysis of units, revenues, ASPs and other metrics. The report includes DSCC’s quarterly forecast out to 2027 across technology, region, resolution and size. Readers interested in subscribing to the DSCC Advanced TV Shipment Report should contact お問い合わせ窓口.
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Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report
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