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Advanced Notebook PCs Decline 9% Q/Q in Q3’22 - 2023 Expected to Grow by 24% Y/Y on 50% Growth for OLEDs
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Last week, we released the advanced notebook PC display (OLEDs and MiniLEDs) results and our latest forecast in the Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします). In Q3’22, we saw a Q/Q decrease of advanced notebook PC displays as a result of elevated channel and brand inventories in the total notebook market and slower growth in the advanced notebook display market as a result of the macroeconomic turbulence and weakened consumer and commercial demand.
For advanced notebook PC displays, Q3’22 was down 9% Q/Q to 4M panels after falling 2% Q/Q in Q2’22. For 2022, we expect advanced notebook PC displays to rise 104% Y/Y to 16.7M units with MiniLEDs at a 64% share, up from 32% in 2021 and OLEDs at a 36% share, down from 68% in 2021. In recent earnings calls by Asus, Dell, HP and Lenovo, they all mentioned the challenging times as a result of weakened consumer and commercial demand. From a revenue perspective, these brands reported revenue growth for the reported quarter and all noted that premium products for the gaming and the creative communities contributed to the lift in revenue. Asus. Dell, HP and Lenovo offer several models of OLED notebook PCs as their premium products. Asus and Lenovo also offer MiniLED notebooks PCs.
Advanced Notebook PC Display Shipments by Technology
In Q3’22, within the advanced notebook PC display category, MiniLEDs led with a 68% share, up from 59% in Q2’22 and OLEDs had a 32% share, down from 41%. The majority share for MiniLEDs is a result of the significant panel shipments for Apple, Acer and Asus. Apple is expected to announce the new M2 Pro and M2 Max powered 14.2” and 16.2” in Q1’23.
For 2022, we expect MiniLEDs to outpace OLED notebook PCs with a 64% unit share and 81% revenue share as a result of higher ASPs for the category.
In Q3’22, for OLED notebook PC displays by brand, Asus led with a 53% share, followed by Lenovo at 16%, HP at 9% and Samsung at 6%. Asus is expected to remain in the lead for 2022 with a 55% unit share and 56% revenue share. In Q3’22, for MiniLED notebook PC displays by brand, Apple dominates the category with a 96% share. Acer, Asus, MSI, Gigabyte and Lenovo have introduced new MiniLED notebook PCs and are expected to increase share. As such, we expect Apple’s share to decline to a 97% share in 2022 from 99% in 2021.
In 2023, we expect advanced notebook PCs to grow 24% Y/Y led by OLED notebook displays increasing 50% Y/Y and MiniLEDs increasing 9% Y/Y. For OLED notebook PC displays, we expect Asus to lose share, but remain with the majority share as a result of gains from Samsung, MSI, Gigabyte and Xiaomi.
OLED Notebook PC Display Shipments by Brand
SDC remains the dominant OLED panel supplier while the MiniLED notebook PC display market is currently split between LGD and Sharp for Apple products, while AUO, BOE and other panel suppliers provide other brands. In Q3’22, for advanced notebook displays, Sharp led with a 35% share followed by SDC with 32% and LGD with 30%. On a panel revenue basis, Sharp led in Q3’22 with a 43% revenue share and is expected to lead through 2022, reaching a high of 48% revenue share for the year as a result of the 14.2” and 16.2” Apple MacBook Pro models. In 2022, for overall share of the advanced notebook PC category, Sharp is expected to have a 37% unit share, followed by SDC with 36% and LGD with 25%. In 2023, we expect SDC to have the majority share as a result of the double-digit Y/Y growth for OLED notebook displays.
Advanced Notebook PC Unit Share by Panel Supplier
Although growth has slowed in 2022 versus our previous estimates, we maintain a robust forecast as a result of several G8.7 IT fabs coming online in 2025 – 2026, with the expectation that Apple will enter the OLED notebook PC category in 2024 and continued cost reductions and innovations for MiniLEDs. In 2027, we expect advanced notebook PCs to achieve a 23% and 52% panel revenue share of the total notebook PC market, up from an 8% share and 22% in 2022 on a 37% unit CAGR and a 35% revenue CAGR to reach $7.9B in 2027.
For more insights into Advanced Display shipments by brand, size, resolution, refresh rate, backplane, substrate, OLED stack, touch, etc., as well as panel and product roadmap, cost and technology advancements, please see the Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします).
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Quarterly Advanced IT Display Shipment and Technology Report
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