English
KoreanFPDメーカーは設備投資を引き続き延期～2023年投資額は2012年以来最低水準に
冒頭部和訳
まず悪いニュースから。DSCCはQ1’23版 Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) において、2023年のFPD設備投資予測をさらに13%下方修正し、2012年以来の最低水準である38 億ドルへと引き下げた。この設備投資額の減少は、FPDメーカー各社が生産能力拡張を延期する要因となっているエンドマーケットの低迷によると考えられる。2020年から2021年にかけて新型コロナウイルス感染症の影響で急増した需要は、2022年から2023年にかけてインフレと経済成長の減速によって弱体化しており、FPD需要は軟調な状況が続いている。
以下 (2番目) の需要予測グラフから、DSCCの2020年予測に対し、2020年には2%、2021年には3%の需要 (面積ベース) の前倒しが見られたことがわかる。これにより、2022年は2020年予測に対して3%の需要減という結果となり、2023年には8%減となる見通しである。需要が当初予測の軌道に戻るのは2026年になるだろう。
同時に、2021年と2022年の需要に対して供給が過剰に追加されたため、以下 (3番目) の掲載グラフが示すように、生産ライン稼働率は異例の低水準になり、FPDメーカー各社は 2022年下半期から2023年にかけて大きな損失を被ることになった。記録的な低価格に需要が反応せず、景気後退の懸念が今後の需要展望を圧迫していることから、FPDメーカー各社は設備投資を可能なかぎり延期している。これは、2023年がFPD製造装置専業メーカーにとって存続をかけた年になることを意味する。
Panel Suppliers Continue to Delay Capex, 2023 Equipment Spending to Be Lowest Since 2012
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First, the bad news. We downgraded 2023 display equipment spending in the Q1’23 issue of our Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) another 13% to just $3.8B, the lowest since 2012. The decline can be attributed to weak end market conditions which are causing panel manufacturers to push out capacity increases. Display demand remains soft with too much demand pulled into 2020 and 2021 during COVID along with inflation and slower economic growth further weakening 2022 and 2023 demand. You can see in the chart below that demand on an area basis was pulled in vs. our 2020 forecast by 2% in 2020 and by 3% in 2021. However, this led to a 3% drop in 2022 and will contribute to an 8% decline in 2023 vs. our 2020 forecast. It will take until 2026 for demand to get back on schedule. At the same time, too much supply was added relative to demand in 2021 and 2022 leading to unusually low fab utilization, shown in another figure below, and large losses for panel makers from 2H’22 and into 2023. With demand not responding to record low prices and recessionary concerns weighing on the future demand outlook, panel manufacturers are pushing out all the capex they can. This means dedicated display equipment suppliers are essentially in survival mode in 2023. Fortunately, the semiconductor equipment market remains strong.
DSCC’s Display Equipment Spending Forecast
DSCC’s 2020 vs. 2023 Demand Forecasts
DSCC’s Quarterly LCD Fab Utilization Results and Forecast
2023 display equipment spending is expected to be down 68% vs. $12B in 2022. We are downgrading OLED equipment spending by 11% and LCD spending by 24% vs. our Q4’22 report as panel manufacturers continue to delay new capacity as current capacity remains under-utilized. This means LCD spending will be down 75% in 2023 with OLED spending down 64%. There is the potential for the $1.5B in LCD spending to shrink further as a couple of key Q4’23 deliveries could be pushed out further into Q1’24 or later although larger equipment companies may not be affected by this move due to existing contracts in place.
However, we do have some good news:
- We did not reduce our 2020-2026 display equipment forecast, which remains at $63.5B. We are mostly reporting on some spending being pushed from 2023 to 2024 or even 2025. 2025 is up 26% vs. our prior forecast.
- We see the market snapping back in 2024 growing 98% to $7.6B in 2024 with OLEDs up 102% to $4.3B and LCDs up 111% to $3.2B. The majority of the OLED investments are addressing the IT market where there is great potential for OLEDs to replace LCDs and lead to demand for even more capacity. Although growth of 98% is of course attractive, it would still be the smallest equipment market since 2015, excluding 2023.
- We also see OLED spending rising another 28% in 2025 to $5.7B, although we see overall spending falling 19% in 2025 as LCD spending drops 87% due to lack of growth in LCD demand.
- Samsung Display has started construction on A6, which may eventually house an additional IT OLED line and/or a new QD-OLED line.
- Discussions for one or two new fabs in India continue to heat up.
- We have begun segmenting MicroLED TFT backplane investments now that we see orders being placed for MicroLED TFT backplane lines at both LG Display and BOE.
- We also added tracking for units, ASPs, revenues and market share for two new segments:
- Solid-state laser annealing with Philoptics winning an order at Samsung Display and Coherent announcing a new system.
- New IJP applications with multi-lens array demand boosting the IJP market.
For more information on DSCC’s Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Share Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) which shows detailed fab schedules, equipment prices, equipment units and revenues and supplier market share for over 70 different types of tools, please contact お問い合わせ窓口.
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Quarterly Display Capex and Equipment Market Report
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