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Korean[新着] TV用LCD価格月報～第4四半期は横ばい続く
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冒頭部和訳
中国の主要LCDメーカー各社による生産抑制で第4四半期の業界供給量が抑えられた結果、TV用LCD価格が安定した。DSCCでは、少なくとも4ヵ月連続ですべてのパネルサイズの価格が横ばいになると予測しているが、これは史上初めてのことだ。
中国FPDメーカー各社は国慶節休暇に合わせて10月初旬に生産ラインを停止したが、これは業界の供給コントロールを目的とした異例の措置だ。例年、国慶節休暇の停止は1-2日間程度だが、今年は1-2週間に及んだ。この10月の操業停止により、Q4’24のLCD TFT生産ライン稼働率は77％となり、TFT投入量は前期比7％減になると予測される。
LCD TV Panel Prices Have Flatlined in Q4
Restrained production by major Chinese LCD makers has kept a lid on industry supply in the fourth quarter, and as a result LCD TV panel prices have stabilized. For the first time ever, in our outlook we expect prices for all panel sizes to be unchanged for at least four consecutive months.
Chinese panel makers shut down their fabs in early October for the National Day holiday, an unusual step to control industry supply. Normally, the National Day shutdown may be only one to two days, but this year panel makers shut down for one to two weeks. With these October shutdowns, we now expect that Q4 utilization of LCD TFT fabs will come in at 77% in Q4’24, and TFT input is expected to decrease by 7% Q/Q.
On the demand side, TV demand firmed up, with overall TV shipments increasing 11% Y/Y in Q3’24, according to the Counterpoint Research Quarterly Global TV Shipments Tracker. TV shipment growth was broad-based across geographic regions, with strong growth in advanced regions including North America and Western Europe.
The first chart here highlights our latest TV panel price update with a forecast to February 2025, starting with the rally which started after prices hit their all-time lows in September 2022. Prices increased in the middle two quarters of 2023, followed by a mild slump in Q4’23 and a mild rally in Q1’24-Q2’24. Prices for November came in right in line with our expectation that they would be unchanged from October. As a result, we now forecast that this stability will continue at least through February.
LCD TV Panel Prices January 2023 – February 2025
Prices in Q2’24 saw a robust average price increase of 5.5% Q/Q, and in Q3’24 we saw an average price decrease of 2.8%. Although we expect prices to be stable in the fourth quarter, September’s prices were lower than the Q3 average, so we expect that the average price in Q4 will be down 2.1% compared to Q3.
As we look at pricing on an area basis, we see a pattern characteristic of oversupply. The smallest TV panel size in our index, 32”, is the ‘canary in the coal mine’ of pricing in the industry. The prices for 32” panels are the first to go up with a supply constraint and are the first to go down in an oversupply. We have seen that pattern bear out in the rally in the first half of 2024 and we are seeing it in the slump in the second half of 2024.
At the prior low point in December 2023, 32” and 43” panels had the lowest area price at $117 and $118 per square meter, respectively, but area prices were higher for 65” ($141), 55” ($146), 75” ($156) and 49/50” ($157). The area price premium for 65” panels over 32” panels was 21% in December, but it was reduced to 14% in June. When the market shifted to oversupply, we saw that premium increase and we now see it stabilizing at 19%.
The area prices for 49”/50” were especially strong in the mid-year up-cycle, while area prices for 43” panels were the lowest in the industry. The premium for 49”/50” over 43” started the year at 31% in January and declined slightly but stabilized at 28%-29% from April through August before declining to 25% in September. We expect the price premium to stabilize at 25%. A premium for 49”/50” over 43” favors panel makers with Gen 8.5 capacity at the expense of those with Gen 10.5 capacity. Gen 10.5 fabs can make 43” very efficiently with an 18-up configuration, but do not have an efficient cut for 49”/50”, while Gen 8.5 fabs can make 49”/50” panels efficiently with an 8-up configuration.
Monthly Area Prices per Square Meter for LCD TV Panels, January 2020 – January 2025
Our final chart in this sequence shows our LCD TV panel price index, taking a longer view from 2015 through January 2025. The price increases in 2023 brought our index up to a peak of 44.8 in September 2023, an increase of 47% compared to the low of 30.5 in September 2022. The index declined to 41.8 in December 2023, which was down 7% from the recent peak but still up 29% Y/Y and up 37% compared to the all-time low. Prices peaked again in May/June 2024 at 45.6, slightly higher than last year’s peak and 49% higher than the all-time low of September 2022. The price index stabilized starting in September at 43.1, 41% higher than the all-time low. November 2024 prices were at the same level compared to a year ago, and December prices are expected to be 3% higher than a year ago.
LCD TV Panel Price Index January 2015 – February 2025
The chart reveals another intriguing characteristic of the recent pattern in panel prices. As of November 2024, prices have remained for 16 months within a relatively tight range between 41.8 and 45.6, less than a 10% range, and have remained for two months with no change at all. This represents a period of unprecedented stability in LCD TV panel prices, and we expect that prices will remain within this range at least through February.
The drop in LCD TV panel prices in Q3 led to reduced profitability in the third quarter of 2024, as most panel makers saw operating profits decrease (or operating losses increase). With the exception of Samsung Display, the total industry operating profit margin was only 1% in Q3’24, barely better than breakeven, and if BOE is taken out the total industry operating profit margin is negative. So, while stable LCD TV prices are much better than declining prices, the current price level still results in losses for flat panel makers.
