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Korean[新着] Q3’24のFPDメーカー業績レビュー
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冒頭部和訳
10月22日(木)のLG Displayを皮切りに、AUOやSamsungなどFPDメーカー各社が順次、第3四半期決算発表を行う。中国のFPDメーカーの場合、第3四半期報告は例年10月31日前後に発表される決算短信によるものとなる。本稿ではFPDメーカー各社の業績のプレビューを行う。
まず、FPD業界の営業利益率について概要を説明する。以下のグラフは2020年以降の業界大手の営業利益率を示している。クリスタルサイクル後の2020年から2021年にかけて、営業利益率はタイトなレンジで推移している一方、FPDメーカー間で業績の乖離が拡大していることがわかる。
Panel Maker Q3’24 Earnings Preview
LG Display will kick off the Q3 earnings season with a report on Thursday, October 23rd, to be followed by AUO, Samsung and the rest of the flat panel display makers. For Chinese panel makers, the Q3 report will be an abbreviated report, which usually is issued about October 31st. Let’s preview the panel maker earnings season.
First, let’s set the stage with an overview of operating margins in the industry. The chart here shows the operating margins of the larger companies in the industry since 2020. While operating margins held in a tight range in 2020-2021 following the Crystal Cycle, we see an increasing divergence of performance among panel makers.
- SDC has continued to report positive operating margins and SDC is now immune to declines in LCD panel prices since it stopped all production of LCD in June 2022. SDC saw its operating margin drop precipitously in Q1’24 on a larger-than-average seasonal slowdown in smartphone panel shipments but recovered into the double-digit % category in Q2’24.
- AUO, Innolux and LGD have been more sensitive to the cycle and saw margins improve in Q2’24 with higher LCD panel prices.
- BOE reported its fourth consecutive quarter of operating profits in Q2’24 and BOE consistently sustains margins higher than its competitors in Taiwan.
Display Maker Quarterly Operating Margins, 2020-2024
Currency effects likely had a negative impact on margins in the third quarter, as all the Asian currencies except the new Taiwan dollar strengthened, as shown by the table below. The stronger currency means that revenues from panel sales, which are usually made in US dollars, will translate to lower revenues in the local currency.
In terms of guidance, in July these companies were cautious about Q3:
- LGD expected area shipments to increase by a mid-single-digit % Q/Q and for ASPs to be flat Q/Q.
- AUO gave guidance for its three business segments. Although the company did not give overall revenue guidance, the business segment guidance implied Q/Q revenues to be flat to down slightly.
- Innolux expected large panel shipments to be down by a low single-digit % Q/Q, small/medium panel shipments to be up by a low single-digit % Q/Q and blended ASP to be flat Q/Q.
Based on monthly revenue reports, Innolux was right in line concerning large area shipments, which were down 2% Q/Q, but too optimistic about small panel shipments which were down 6%. Overall, the company seemed to be close to its guidance as Innolux revenues were down 3% Q/Q. AUO revenues, which were up 5% Q/Q seemed to be better than its guidance.
The table below shows analyst expectations for Q3’24 for the panel makers with analyst coverage, according to marketscreener.com. The analyst expectations for margins anticipate a sequential improvement in margins in Q2’24. AUO revenues were 9% higher than analyst expectations so AUO is likely to do better on operating margin as well. Innolux revenues were right in line with expectations, so operating profit and net income are likely to be in line with expectations as well.
LGD’s guidance implies an increase in revenues (in KRW) of about 5% and consensus estimates predict a revenue increase of 6% Q/Q, so if LGD meets its guidance it will come close to meeting consensus expectations.
Perhaps more important than the results will be the guidance given about Q4’24. With LCD panel prices falling through Q3 but stabilizing in Q4, and with the recently announced stimulus package in China, we expect panel makers to be cautiously optimistic in their guidance.
