Worldwide Advanced TV Shipments to Grow by 22% CAGR to 32 Million in 2025

Ann Arbor, MI USA -

Advanced TV shipments are expected to grow by 22% Y/Y in Q4 2020, and by a comparable 22% CAGR through 2025 to 32.5 million units according the latest update to DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report, now available to subscribers. This report covers the worldwide premium TV market, including the most advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD Display, QDEF, Dual Cell LCD and MiniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. The report looks at current and future TV shipments and revenues by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and forecasts the growth of all these technologies. Last week we covered the most recent historical results and this week we will cover our updated forecast.

In this report we define an “Advanced TV” (capitalized) as any TV with an advanced display technology feature, including all OLED TVs, 8K LCD TVs and all LCD TVs with quantum dot technology. The forecast in the report allows analysis by feature for Advanced LCD TVs, including:

• QDEF TV: TV using a Quantum Dot Enhancement Film; these TVs are sold as “QLED” by Samsung, TCL, and others.
• MiniLED: LCD TVs with a MiniLED backlight, as sold by TCL starting in 2019. Note that we expect that all MiniLED TVs will also have QDEF, but not all QDEF will have MiniLED.
• Dual Cell: LCD TVs employing dual-cell technology, as introduced by Hisense in 2019. Note that we expect that all Dual Cell TVs will also have QDEF, but not all QDEF will be Dual Cell.
• LCD Others: this category includes LCD TVs with 8K resolution, that do not fall in any other category.
• QD Display: Samsung’s term for its Quantum Dot OLED (QD OLED) technology, but our forecast also uses this term for potential successor technologies, such as QNED and EL-QD. The QD Display category excludes QDEF TVs.
• MicroLED: we expect that Samsung will introduce direct-view MicroLED TVs starting in 2021 at sizes from 88”-110”, marketed as TVs for wealthy consumers. Our report excludes larger MicroLED products such as the 146” and 292” “The Wall” products sold by Samsung, as these are primarily business displays.

Following a massive 71% Y/Y increase in Q3 2020, Advanced TV shipments in Q4 2020 are expected to increase by a more modest 22% Y/Y to 4.7 million units, as shown in the first chart here. We expect that the screen size distribution of the first nine months of the year will continue in Q4, with big Y/Y gains at the smallest and largest sizes. Advanced LCD TVs smaller than 49” will see a 97% Y/Y increase while in 48” OLED will increase from 0 in 2019 to 112k units in Q4 2020. Overall, TVs smaller than 55” will increase from 11% of Advanced TVs in Q4 2019 to 17% in Q4 2020.

We expect that OLED TV growth will outpace Advanced LCD TV growth in Q4, increasing 26% Y/Y to 1.4 million units, while Advanced LCD TV increases 20% Y/Y to 3.3 million. OLED TV share will edge up from 29% of all Advanced TV to 30%.

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