Advanced TV shipments are expected to grow by 46% Y/Y in 2021, and by a 22% CAGR through 2026 to 43.1M units generating $52B in revenue, according to the latest update to DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします), now available to subscribers. This report covers the worldwide premium TV market, including the most advanced TV technologies: WOLED, QD Display, QDEF, Dual Cell LCD and MiniLED with 4K and 8K resolution. The report looks at current and future TV shipments and revenues by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and forecasts the growth of all these technologies. Last week we covered the most recent historical results and this week, we will cover our updated forecast.

In this report, we define an “Advanced TV” (capitalized) as any TV with an advanced display technology feature, including all OLED TVs, 8K LCD TVs and all LCD TVs with quantum dot technology. The forecast in the report allows analysis by feature for Advanced LCD TVs, including:

• QDEF TV: TV using a Quantum Dot Enhancement Film; these TVs are sold as “QLED” by Samsung, TCL and others;
• MiniLED: LCD TVs with a MiniLED backlight, as sold by TCL starting in 2019. Note that we expect that all MiniLED TVs will also have QDEF, but not all QDEF will have MiniLED;
• Dual Cell: LCD TVs employing dual-cell technology, as introduced by Hisense in 2019. Note that we expect that all Dual Cell TVs will also have QDEF, but not all QDEF will be Dual Cell;
• QD Display: Samsung’s term for its Quantum Dot OLED (QD OLED) technology, but our forecast also uses this term for potential successor technologies, such as QNED and EL-QD. The QD Display category excludes QDEF TVs;
• MicroLED: Samsung will introduce direct-view MicroLED TVs starting this year with sizes from 88”-110”, marketed as TVs for wealthy consumers. Our report excludes larger MicroLED products such as the 146” and 292” “The Wall” products sold by Samsung, as these are primarily business displays.

Following a massive 72% Y/Y increase in 1H’21 compared to pandemic-constrained volumes in 2020, Advanced TV shipments in 2H’21 are expected to increase by a more modest 33% Y/Y to 11.6M units, as shown in the first chart here. In the first half we saw the biggest gains at the biggest sizes, and we expect that trend to continue in the second half of 2021. In Advanced LCD TV, shipments of 75” and larger TVs will increase by 87% Y/Y and in OLED 77” and larger TVs will increase by 140% Y/Y. On the other hand, Advanced LCD TVs smaller than 49” will see a 2% Y/Y decrease as they need to deal with new competition from OLED 48” TVs, which will increase by 345% from 175k in 2020 to 778k in 2021.

We expect that OLED TV growth will outpace Advanced LCD TV growth in 2021, increasing 81% Y/Y to 6.7M units, while Advanced LCD TV increases 33% Y/Y to 12.8M. OLED TV unit share will increase from 27% of all Advanced TVs in 2020 to 34% in 2021.

Advanced TV Shipments by Size and Display Technology, 2019 to 2021

With increasing prices and a bigger product mix, we expect that Advanced TV revenues will increase by 67% Y/Y for the full year 2021 to $26.7B. From a revenue perspective, the increased prices for LCD TVs along with increased capacity for OLED TV panels have combined to allow OLED TVs to gain share of the Advanced TV market. Revenues are expected to grow by 78% Y/Y to $11.0B and the OLED TV revenue share of Advanced TV increasing from 39% in 2020 to 41% in 2021.

In our updated long-term forecast, we expect total Advanced TV shipments to grow by a 22% CAGR from 2020 to 2026 to 43.1M units, with OLED TV growing at a faster 29% CAGR to 16.5M and Advanced LCD TV units growing at 18% to 25.7M. Including QD Display, OLED TV will recover its share of the Advanced TV market to 38% by 2026.

We expect Advanced TV revenues to increase at a 22% CAGR to $52.4B in 2026, driven by increasing volumes, larger screen sizes and new technologies. We forecast that OLED TV revenues, including QD Display, will grow by a 30% CAGR to $27.1B in 2026 and will surpass Advanced LCD TV revenues in 2025. We expect that Advanced LCD TV revenues will peak in 2025 at $22.8B, and the Advanced LCD TV revenue share will decline to 43% in 2026. We expect that MicroLED will emerge as the super-premium TV to capture 6% of Advanced TV revenues with only 0.2% of units.

The report divides worldwide shipments into eight geographic regions, and we expect that Western Europe and North America will continue to be the largest regions for Advanced TV. However, their share of worldwide shipments and revenue will decline as other regions grow faster. These two regions represented a combined 65% and 63% of Advanced TV units and revenue, respectively, in 2020, and we expect the combined share to decrease to 51%/57% by 2026.

Advanced TV Revenues by Region, 2018 to 2026

The Advanced TV landscape in the coming years will include dramatic growth in 8K TV sets. 8K TV will be led primarily by LCD technology since the cost and performance disadvantages in LCD are relatively modest but will also include some WOLED and QD Displays. Unlike the flat panel technologies, we do not expect 8K to be introduced for MicroLED TV during this forecast time frame, as the cost penalty for 4x higher resolution in MicroLED technology would be prohibitive.

Our forecast for 8K TV by screen size is shown in the next chart here. Because of the huge volumes in 65” supplied by Gen 10.5 fabs, we expect that 65” will be the largest volume for 8K, but that 75” and >75” will represent bigger growth and revenue opportunities as the 8K market increases.

8K TV Shipments by Screen Size, 2018 to 2026

The category of Advanced TVs represents only a small fraction of the total TV market in unit terms, but it represents where all “the action” is in the technology battle. The rising star for the LCD camp is MiniLED, and our forecast for MiniLED TV sets by screen size is shown in the final chart here. MiniLED TV was introduced by TCL in 2019 but sold only in very small volumes, but TCL has broadened its product line and has been followed by other major brands introducing MiniLED TVs, including Samsung and LG. We expect an ongoing battle between MiniLED and OLED for the premium TV market; because of the Gen 10.5 LCD fabs, we expect that MiniLED will have a substantial cost and price advantage over OLED in the largest screen sizes but OLED will outperform in 55” and smaller sizes. Overall, we expect that the volume for OLED TVs (including Samsung’s QD Display) to continue to exceed that of MiniLED, but that LCD TV (both MiniLED and standard backlit models) will continue to maintain >60% unit share of Advanced TV.

MiniLED TV Shipments by Screen Size, 2020 to 2026

DSCC’s Quarterly Advanced TV Shipment and Forecast Report (一部実データ付きサンプルをお送りします) includes technical descriptions of all major advanced TV display technologies, plus quarterly shipment results from Q1 2018 through Q2 2021, sortable by technology, region, brand, resolution and size, and includes pivot tables for analysis of units, revenues, ASPs and other metrics. The report includes DSCC’s quarterly forecast for five years across technology, region, resolution and size. Readers interested in subscribing to the DSCC Advanced TV Shipment Report should contact info@displaysupplychain.co.jp.